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How to Lie With Statistics
Darrell Huff

W. W. Norton & Company, 1993 - 142 pages

average customer review:based on 91 reviews
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   highly recommended  highly recommended




original book that gave statistics a bad name

Along with that saying "Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics" this book lets the public know that there are methods out there that distort and can mislead. As a statistician who knows that the proper use of statistical methods is valuable and uncovers truth or quantifies uncertainty I get a bit worried about the continued association of statistics with lies. However, this book by Huff is entertaining and is a classic. If you read it carefully you will see that it is not statistical methods that create the lie but rather unscrupulous people who misuse the methods and take advantage of the public's ignorance of statistical ideas. The message of the book is to learn statistics so that you won't be deceived!


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Statistics don't lie; people do.

This book, written in 1954, is just as pertinent today (perhaps even more so, as it's so easy to acquire statistics due to our current technology) -- Darrell Huff gives people the tools to talk back to statistics. Though there is a little bit about deliberate deception, in such things as "The Gee-Whiz Graph" (about how the graphical display of statistics can be twisted so that one can get any desired result, though the stats aren't changed), the meat of the book is regarding sound statistical reasoning, something that people today really need to consider.

For example, every person who listens to the latest survey showing a correlation between certain food and certain health problems or benefits should read "Post Hoc Rides Again", in which people erroneously leap from statistical correlation to a cause-and-effect relationship. An example given in the book is a report in which it was found that smokers had lower grades in college; ergo, said the researcher, smokers wishing to improve their grades should quit smoking! Of course, a statistical study showing that there's a "significant" relation between smoking and low grades doesn't show which causes the other -- perhaps educational failure draws people to smoke! My own theory would be that the =type= of person who is given to smoking is also given to not doing well in school; instead of cause and effect, one has a correlation from a shared, third (and unnamed) cause. One comes across these fallacies in the news =every=day=; I've been reading my online news, and in the science section I've already found two suspicious cause-and-effect reports. As Huff notes, it's not the statistics which are in question -- it's how they're used.

Some of the figures and examples used are funny due to their datedness (I love the picture of the surveyor asking a doctor what brand of cigarette he smokes, and the cigar-smoking baby just makes me smirk). It seems to me if you multiply every monetary amount by 10, you might get a better idea as to what it's worth (I don't know what it is actually worth, as I don't know what the inflation from 1954 is (another suspicious statistic)).

More to the point, with the help of this book, you need not have blind faith in the numbers or disgustedly throw all stats away. The mathematics of statistics guarantees them to have great power, as long as you know how to interpret them correctly. You might be pleasantly surprised to find that more common sense than math is involved in this book, but the truth is most modern abuse of numbers happens well after the numbers have been calculated. Of course, once you talk back to statistics people may think you're crazy; at least you won't be fleeced by false reasoning.


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Interesting

This short essay is really interesting, even if it relies much more above use that humans make of statistics than above statistics itself. You can deceive people by presenting statistical data by mainly two methods: not representative samples and inaccurate calculations, and both are fairly, but not deeply, examined within the text. You can easily realize that the book was written in 1954 (half a century ago!), but it is still a suitable to almost absolute beginners in statistics.






Out-of-Date Numbers

When How to Lie --- was first published in 1954, when a $10,000 salary was considered munificent, a Yale graduate at $23,000 would have been considered outstanding. And a CEO at $48,000 grossly overpaid. For those who can still think in 1954 terms, relating to the number examples in this book is possible. For all others, when the book was re-copyrighted in 1993, the number examples should have been made current.


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Statistics Prove It's So- Or Do They?

I first became acquainted with this book when I worked for the US Government. They were going 'hot and heavy', trying to introduce statistics to 'built the quality into our products' instead of 'trying to inspect quality into the products'. The problem?- none of the supervisors or management really knew anything about statistics, either. After I quoted this book a couple of times it seemed to 'disappear' from our Technical Library. I didn't see it again for nearly twenty years and then another ten years passed before I saw it advertised on Amazon.com . Graphs, especially those truncated and showing only the top part of what is being charted- such as a change from 95% to 98% can appear as almost a doubling at first glance. A saying we had was- "Figgers don't lie- but liars can figger!" You too can learn about statistics and phony charts, or maybe really learn how to interpret the data presented. The numbers still work but the book doesn't appear to have been updated over the years; the annual income examples, etc. especially seem wildly low and unless you can relate to them take away some of the relevance to todays economy. Realize this is a bit of a classic, though, and you can have some fun with it!


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reviews: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, page 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19



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