Only 3 stars. The message is good, the delivery is drawn out

books:


	• The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel Stephen Leeb, Glen Strathy Business Plus, 2007 - 224 pages average customer review:based on 77 reviews view larger image
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highly recommended

Only 3 stars. The message is good, the delivery is drawn out

The author makes excellent points on the dire need to start conserving oil. He rightly points out that the current economic growth of China and India preclude them from slowing down their oil consumption without throwing them into economic turmoil. He also provides good facts around peak oil theory (the earth ain't making no more of it, and we think we've found most of it. Production is at (or very near) it's peak, and we produce less and less as time goes on).

If you are new to the notion of peak oil, then this book might be helpful in understanding why peak oil will be so devastating to the economic future of the entire world.

However, if you have read a few peak oil books, and already understand the macro-economic impact of the rapidly developing Chinese and Indian economies on the worlds natural resources, then this book will be, for the most part, a very tedious read for you.

The author provides little new insight into the problems of peak oil, although some of his investing ideas were new to me and may be of use to you.

The biggest issue I have with this book is that the author constantly repeats the same topics throughout the book, providing little additional detail each time he rehashes a concept. He basically created what might have been a very good short book into a tedious long book.

As I read the book I kept saying to myself "Yes, you've already said that five times, I get the point". In short, it is an annoying read at times.

Had this book been half (or even one third) as long, the author could still have made his key points and conclusions and I think it would be worthy of 4 or even 5 stars.

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Peak oil from an investor view

Author Stephen Leeb recounts the anarchy, chaos and immense suffering that followed in the wake of hurricanes Katrina and Rita and suggests this may be in our future in a broader way if and when the oil flow that largely supports our wealth creation is abruptly decreased. The "new world" that could emerge might be one of greatly reduced complexity. Systems like clean water/sewers, computing power, organized transporation and large-scale production, medicine and chemical-supported/mechanized farming could diminish into a more localized, much less resource-intensive - and even Amish-like subsistance.

In any issue like "peak oil," a multi-faceted view is needed to grasp the deep truths. This book reveals some of the same scenarios layed out by other authors concerning the forecased economic disaster looming ahead - but brings some additional perspectives from the world of investments. One can tell reading several of the sections that the suthor indeed is an investment professional and not an environmental sustainability guru. Where other books on peak oil (Hubbart's Peak, 1000 Barrels a Second) are loaded full of technical graphs, Leeb's account here is loaded with investment advice on how to prosper if/when such a downfall insues (his advice bsaed on the 70's oil crisis: buy gold, real estate, oil company stock and China/India investments).

Of surprize to many readers will be almost no mention whatsoever of ecological issues related to oil like climate change or other eco impacts. In fact, where the author finally gets around to mentioning global warming, much to his credit he brings out a potent reality rarely mentioned in the peak oil discussion: petro-chemicals and their essential products will also potentially plummet severely. These are the plastics, asphalt, plastic packaging, PVC pipe, pharmacueticals and other essential products we take for granted.

In the end, Mr. Leeb seems somewhat hopeful (unlike others) that technology - if applied quickly and with an Apollo-mission-like lazar focus - might save the day. He is bullish on wind power, a renewable that is closest to competing now with fossil fuel power. But, many others state the case for a more sustainable world based on new, totally reimagined ways of doing things much better than the author here.

In short, if you are concerned with how your portfolio should change if oil starts climbing over $100/barrel, this is a decent book to inform. Otherwise, for a broader view on impacts of peak oil and the other critical issues facing civilization, Lester Brown's "Plan B - Rescuing a Planet under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble" is a compelling choice. An excellent, economic-focused study on peak oil is "1000 Barrels a Day" written by a leading energy-sector financial analyst(these are the relatively unbiased voices I tend to weight most heavily in this topic).

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Great Book!

The information listed is in line with everything else I've read. Great presentation and full of facts. I enjoyed reading it.

Predictions so far spot on target . . . .

I've read and re-read this book over the last year and have to say that Leeb's predictions have been very, very good. In fact, much, much better than my advisors and their research departments in the financial services industry. Oil service stocks such as Schlumberger, National Oilwells Varco and Transocean have been fantastic performers over the last three years and continue to rise despite a mediocre market. Resource companies such as Freeport Mcmorran, Teck Cominco and CVRD continue to rise. Russia & Venezuala are nationalizing their oil industries. Iran's nuclear ambitions are partly because they are running out of energy to feed their growing population. Gold is now over $750 an ounce! The US dollar continues a steady decline against other world currencies. The US Federal Reserve has lowered rates by 1/2 a percent because they know how vulnerable and debt laden US households are with the housing decline. In other words, inflation is the only solution to the fix the US is in. The war on Iraq and the War on Terror has sucked up precious resources and requires the govt. to print more money. The Fed is in a real bind right now and they are following the course predicted by Leeb. If the Fed had raised rates or kept them the same, then I would say Leeb might have been wrong. Large cap Chindian stocks such as Procter & Gamble are doing well as are infrastructure plays such as Chicago Bridge & Iron (mentioned by Leeb) and Foster Wheeler. Oil is now over $81 a barrel and rising. US Small Cap stocks are not doing well - my US small cap fund has preformed dismally. At the same time, financial advisors continue to be in denial of the new reality. Hats off to Mr. Leeb: I'm making money thanks to his thoughtful advice. As a Canadian seeing our dollar now at par with the $US for the first time since 1976, the price of our grain rising 40% in one year (partly due to ethanol production) and the crazy rush of resources into our tar sands, I can tell you that Mr. Leeb has hit the target with his book and predictions.

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Hits the Mark

I found Leeb's book to be well reasoned and devoid of the hysteria so common to books forecasting problems for the dollar and the US economy. The worst thing about this book is the title because the 'economic collapse' phrase may cause many to think it's written by a crank. That is certainly not true.

Leeb ties in the rising price of oil with America's debt problems and shows what options remain for the Federal Reserve and the government. It's not that complicated. They have to inflate because a deep recession would crush an economy so burdened with public and private debt. We already saw this after the 2001 stock crash. They cut rates to near zero and doubled the national debt in 7 years rather than suffer a cleansing recession. The feds know how bad it could get. America can't afford to risk a recession due to all the debt and leverage in every part of the system.

In 2007, the situation has become much worse because now we have an imploding housing market and a falling dollar. Interestingly, Leeb stated in the book that he didn't think housing would crash. He figured the feds would inflate at all costs to prevent it from happening because a housing collapse is far worse than a stock market crash. He may yet be right, but home prices are surely falling right now. So, what will the government do - double the national debt again?

Look at it this way. If the economy continues to grow then demand for oil will grow and we'll hit supply constraints and higher prices much faster. That means inflation. If the economy slows due to housing or oil or slowing consumption, then the feds will have to inflate to prevent a deflation. No matter how you look at the problem, it seems the news will be bad for the dollar. Faced with the facts and inflationary scenarios Leeb presents, I think a reasonable person would want to own some gold.

Leeb's portfolio suggestions are a bit extreme for me and I'd balance them a bit. However, he's been right so far. This is a very good book in all respects.

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reviews: 1, 2, 3, page 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13

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