Good Predition of Three Possible Futures That Won't Be

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	• Radical Evolution: The Promise and Peril of Enhancing Our Minds, Our Bodies -- and What It Means to Be Human Joel Garreau Broadway, 2006 - 400 pages average customer review:based on 31 reviews view larger image
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highly recommended

Genetics, Robotics, Information, Nano--Lacks Humanity

I've admired Joel Garreau ever since I read and reviewed his really insightful The Nine Nations of North America. I am glad to have bought and read this book, it is certainly worth reading, but it is somewhat unbalanced. However (this is an edit of the original review), now that I have read Ray Kurzweil's book, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology a techno-geek rendition of the same technologies and their future, I have to give Garreau higher marks--while this book may lack soul, it does come closer to its titular objective than does Kurzweil's. Both are worth buying and reading together.

He focused on four technologies abbeviated as GRIN: Genetics, Robotics, Information, and Nano. Others have focused on the integration of Nano, Information, Bio-Technology and Cognitive Science (NIBC), and I would have been happier with this book if it focused more on the thinking side of the future rather than the bio-mechanical side.

The other area where I felt the book was disappointing was in its almost total acceptance at face value of all that the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is doing to elevate soldier-humans, giving them super human strength, acute mental perception almost to the point of telepathy, and so on. I could not help but feel, over and over as I read this book, that if DARPA were to apply its considerable talents to waging peace and addressing poverty, disease, water scarcity, energy independence, and the urgent need for global education that does not require packing kids like rats into a stiffling anti-creative environment (and making them get up at 0600), that we would all be better off.

The author talks about the implications for human transformation in all of this, but missing from his schema is the moral dimension. This is closer to a comic book super-hero depiction than it is to a renaissance man's moral and cultural enlightenment, and that, in my view, is where this book falls short--it lacks soul.

I recommend that readers consider the books by Tom Atlee, The Tao of Democracy: Using Co-Intelligence to Create a World That Works for All and Margaret Wheatley Leadership and the New Science: Discovering Order in a Chaotic World as well as the book The World Cafe: Shaping Our Futures Through Conversations That Matter to gain an alternative perspective on what it might mean to be human in the future, despite the over-whelming incursions of technology into our humanity.

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Important and comprehensive book

Garreau takes a scenario planner's view of what he considers some inevitable advancements in the GRIN technologies (genetics, robotics, information technology, and nanotechnology), which will enable humans to exert radical and powerful upon themselves, each other, and the environment. These four technologies are interacting synergistically, therefore multiplying the power and impact of each. But even more importantly, according to Garreau, the pace of change itself is accelerating faster than a lot of people realize.

For Garreau, the result is that there will shortly (within 30 years) arrive a massive tide of change that will sweep a substantial portion of humanity up, and leave others behind. Garreau wonders if the different portions of humanity will even recognize each other as human. Should we call it the geek's version of the fundamentalist Christian idea of The Rapture?

This coming tide is called by some the Singularity, and by others the Spike (think of the graph that slopes gradually and then curves up to the top right at the end). Garreau tries to be present both sides of the debate about whether this can and should happen, but he's unsuccessful.

For instance, there is some contrary evidence to the accelerating returns argument. Yes, computing hardware follows Moore's law, and so do several other technologies. But do those lead to radical social upheavals? If things are really accelerating, they should. Look at the changes introduced between 1900-1950 (roughly): the combustion engine, the automobile, the airplane, the jet engine, the rocket, the telephone, the radio, the television, nuclear power & weapons, and the computer. Each of them had a massive impact.

If we're really experiencing radical evolution, the subsequent 50 years should have been even more radical. Yes, we have the personal computer, the Internet/web/email, but those are each more than 30 years old. The human genome project is a magnificent achievement, and though the cost of sequencing a base pair has followed the similar price/performance curve of the computer processors, it hasn't spawned any radical changes yet. The CD has now been around longer than the 8 track (good thing too). And we're still travelling via car and plane with combustion engines, and we aren't doing much with our rockets.

I think it's possible we're in a curve, but I'm not convinced. I think Garreau could have grappled with the contrary evidence a little better.

He does give a fair amount of attention to the respectable naysayers like Bill Joy and Francis Fukayama who think we should voluntarily or legislatively forswear certain lines of research and the use of certain technologies. He gives less attention (and I think it's a mistake) to the darker currents to the luddite movement, like Islamic and other forms of violent religious fundamentalism, or the violent environmentalists like some members of PETA, ELF, and Earth First. He mentions Ted Kazynsky (the Unabomber) in passing, but doesn't really connect his sentiments to the radical violence it spawned, and could spawn again.

I loved reading about Jaron Lanier (who is basically the hero of the book), and also the personality profiles of Bill Joy and the wizards at DARPA. But he leaves a large part of the community out. I don't think he gives enough attention to religious thinkers and ethicists (he briefly talks about Leon Kass and Michael Sandel, both on the President's Bioethics committee); he complains that traditional religions don't have anything to contribute to the coming Singularity. That's probably true, so perhaps this omission is more due to the fact that most religious leaders' haven't really grappled with the implications of the Curve, but I don't get the sense Garreau really tried. Just one example that occurred to me when reading the book was the Heaven Scenario bears a marked resemblance to the Christian notion of the Millenium, where the lamb lays down with the lion, men live to the age of a tree, and everyone dwells in peace, prosperity, and freedom. (See the Old Testament prophet Isaiah, for instance.)

So while this book is a much broader tour de force than the more geeky focus of Kurweil's or Gilder's books (which I enjoy), it still ends up being a conversation between geeks--Kurzweil on one side, Joy on the other, and Lanier in the middle.

Most of my points here are quibbles. It's a very insightful book, one that I highly recommend, no matter where you land on the can/can't;should/shouldn't quadrant.

Sometimes you'll hear people say that science and technology have outrun morality and ethics. Not true. The futures outlined in Garreau's book have all been anticipated by decades of science fiction and elsewhere. Technology has only outrun our morality because we've surrendered it to the cult of the new. We have outsourced our ethics to professionals and those with vested interests. We have abdicated our right to moral judgement as humans, preferring to be entertained and served by our tools, without really thinking carefully about what they will make us.

We can influence events. Yes, there are powerful forces that can influence the direction of events, but I truly believe the future doesn't just happen passively and inevitably, like the course of some river. The future is CREATED, it is imagined and realized by visionaries who work and sacrifice for it. We need to stand up for timeless human values like love, honesty, loyalty, respect for life, and caring for the weak and disadvantaged. And if we believe in those things, then we must also oppose those who argue that these values are obsolete, meaningless, or a hindrance to progress. We have a chance to create a future we want to live in. But only if we pay attention.

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Prevail Scenerio prophecy

Jaron Lanier's critical concern and focuse is the connectedness between humans. Lanier introduces the "Prevail scenerio", as a likely and possible outcome of the exponential curve and Lanier dismisses the possibilty of a singularity. Lanier says the singular will never happen because the game is infinite. Therefore, Lanier dismisses the religion of the elite technologist, who believe computers are becoming autonomous and rising above humans in a trap against humanity too convert their brains into a technological superior computer component, in the network. Elitist claim eventually computers will become the successors of the the human species. The elitist argument is called the Heavan scenerio. The Heavan scenerio was introduced by Kurzweil, who observed computers will eventually achieve 1,000 times the information processing power than the brain, as the power curve move smooth upward.

At some, point technology will offer a compelling advantage to integrate the brain with the computer. Originally, radical steps may include a combination of biology and technology too produce superhumans.

However, the final outcome protrays humans converting their brains into silicon computer. The Heavan scenerio sounds like hell; it discounts all religous claims of a spirit; it annihilates the hope of human receiving a glorified body; it completely destroys reliance on guidance from God; it puts a machine idol at the pinicle of society and sacrifices human imagination and creative too a mechanical order; it claims to be the hope for and advanced and enhanced people (wisdom, peace, truth, beauty).

If the supreme entity in the universe was a computer, the machine would be connected to all of its components, be aware of all activity in the network, and maintain absolute order in the network against disruption. The introduction and adoption of the Heavan senerio would destroy a millenial hope for mankind. Kurzweil's theorm, therefore, becomes the Everst of humanist prophecy.

Bill Joys Hell scenerio lures the reader, too believe, nanotechnology and self replicating machines will destory the world turning the world into a gray mudd, the "Hell scenerio". Joy does not believe machines will gain consciousness. Joy likens the replicating machine to a virus and once the replicating machines starts replicating it may move from a closed system into an open system with destructive impact.

Joy's Hell scenerio demands companies too be held legally and financially accountable for the potential risks imposed on society. Joy wants scientist to use a moral guide line for moving forward. Joy warns against recklessly discovery. Machines offer no morality.

Can we trust a machine. We trust machines each day to do simple and complex work. Production levels depend on machines, society depends on machines, usage of machines is a feature of advanced societies. Machines offer safety, comfort, and service. Most people consider machines as reliable. Machines are used in war. Power equates to the usage of a machine. The Curve suggests that power is increasing exponentially as so will the correlation of the machine. Each day millions of people use machines in a life and death event called driving. Joy wants a slow down, so humans can have time to sort through the issues, of radical change. Some have argued that software logic will be the limitation of the machine, in other words, software will not be able to keep pace with changes in hardware. Software will not be able to adapt too all the niches that hardware will fill.

Joy vision was to have small snippets of code that would work with hareware and as hardware increased in volume, Java would also increase in volume. Software would keep pace with hareware. This was the reason Joy built java. Java was a based on the belief that the network is the computer. Java was designed to be the programming language for components on the network. Computers chips would be found everywhere and connected through a network with a programming language and operating system that was integrated. Joy liked the idea of interconnected machines and large central databases assembling and interpreting the information.

However, Joy saw the radical advancements of nanotechnology, biotechnology, and cyberborg technology as morphing humanity into a ugly monster of ten different heads. The breath taking pace of progress moved humanity forward at neck breaking speeds punching through unachieveable levels and through barriers, in a frantic race to get there first. Some believe, the curve will offer the hope of better health, smarter people, more beautiful people, and a vision of an attractive paradise: Beauty ruling over wisedom; Power over prudence; and superiority over interpersonal connectedness and intimacy.

Joy proclaimed, a parable of wisedom, against embracing such a hedonistic objective and encouraged humanity too resist the temptation of believing the curve and the singular will produce a glorious outcome. Joy instead suggested reckless pursuits could have dismal limitations and mankind may never arrive at utiopia. Instead mankind may experience just the opposite a complete technology meltdown. Rationally, one may say, it does not seem possible considering the fact the curve has not be affected by economic and political meltdowns along the way. Kurzweil challenges Lanier to beef up his programming skilling in a coding challenge too reach the singular and this is a strange consideration because these two are the heavy weights of code proliferation.

Lanier does not rely on God, in his theorm, however, he does not attack God and leaves open the possiblity of a supreme being. Lanier states, "The universe does not provide a way to have absolute faith". Lanier finds evidence of the curve by its impact on society. Lanier states the curve will not move smoothly up, instead it will have ups and downs; the curve will be messy and chaotic; technology will not be in control. Lanier does not believe the technology elistist will gain control of the world because of the unpredictable human nature and the unconstrain boundaries imposed by self determinism. One such self determinism being found, in the constitution. Lanier tells the reader try and create an operating system that defines humanity like the constitution does, it can not be done. Can a machine derive meaning from the constitution and correct intrepret the law? Instead, Lanier sees the curve ramping up and helping to bridge the interpersonal gap. Lanier believes the curve is an infinite game and an infinite game suggests transcendance will expand forever meaning there will be not singular. "To train ourselves too adapt to a low-grade form in order to get some machine to work is alittle like asking people to reduce their vocabulary so that the language will work better overall." Humans have imagination. The goal is to keep the level of imagination.

Lanier further challenges the definition of transcendance, stating, "Do we believe we have a complete description of what a human is" and "do we know what reality is". Lanier says, "Humans have an uncanny history of muddling through and forging unlikely paths to improbable futures in defiance of historical forces that seem certain and inevitable." (Revolution war and civil war). "People facing extraordinary odds rise to the occassion because it is the right thing to do." "Even if technology is advancing exponentially, that does not mean humans cannot creatively shape the impact on human nature and society in largely unpredictable ways."

Lanier is interested in the impact of technology on society. "Progress is in the emergence of interesting societies"; "the measure of success will be the extent one can communicate more deeply and completely with others".

Laniers suggests the smooth curve does not describe the future. Arrogance and presumption plaque humanity. Humanism fails because it can not suggesting divine intervention and expression. Human behavior is unpredictable and so is the outcome, for the following reasons: Scientist seriously underestimation of the complexity of the solution (gene mapping, protemics, conscious creativity, replication); complexity breeds unreliability (nanobots failing because of operating system crashes); the Prevail scenerio embraces uncertainty suggesting many factors will be unpredictable; cost/benefits never workout; the future will be overtaken by new technologies; bad experiences inoculate towards the plan; and inventors fundamentally misunderstand human behavior. The most important argument by Lanier is connectedness is not measured by technology. The test is interesting group behavior.

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Good Predition of Three Possible Futures That Won't Be

I first read Mr. Garreau's previous book "The Nine Nations of North America." At the time I was trying to decide where I wanted to live. He pegged me like an entomologist peggs a bug with a pin to it's place in the collection. (If you're curious, I found my home in the Big Empty.)

Then his next book Edge Cities, about the definition of new and growning centers of culture, business, etc around the edge of the Big Cities that have become too big, too crime ridden, too expensive again helped define what I was looking for.

Now he's done this one on what the future may hold. He investigates a lot of leading edge scientific projects and examines what the future may be like if they truly come to pass bringing the 'benefit' that they promise. He then ties these into three senarios that he calls Heaven, Hell and Prevail.

His descriptions of where science may be going is great. His forecasts of the future remind me of the old saying that 'Predicting the future is easy, it's being right that's difficult.'

Whatever the future holds, it won't be as forecast. It'll be something different. Perhaps, indeed, almost certainly it will contain elements of all three senarios Mr. Garreau is describing. But it will also have big changes forced on it by the every increasing shortage of oil. The AIDS pandemic is just getting a good start, and so far at least I don't see any immediate end. Warfare is changing with al-Qaida on the one hand and the nuclear aspirations of North Korea and Iran.

This book is a great attempt at laying out one direction the world can go, it's worth reading for that alone. Just keep an open mind.

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Radical Evolution

One of the most interesting book I have read in recent years. I was amazed at what is being developed for the benefit of humanity. Hopefully, I will live long enough to see some of these developments come to fruition.
Walter Hovell

reviews: 1, 2, 3, 4, page 5, 6, 7

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