Understanding the future that will become our history

books:

	• The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century George Friedman Doubleday, 2009 - 272 pages average customer review:based on 141 reviews view larger image
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America, The Next 100 Years

WOW!!! Excellent read on the most likely Geopolitical and Economic outcomes for America and the World over the next 100 yrs.

George Friedman does a marvelous job of explaining in simple terms the Geopolitical and Economic history of America and the World over the last 100 years and why because of our current economics and politics America will not only be standing in 100 yrs but most likely will still be the dominate power militarily, economically and for the 2 reasons stated here previously geopolitically as well.

Whether or not George Friedman is correct with his predictions, we will have to wait anad see, but he does a masterful and entertaining job of building the case for America's continued leadership in all areas with many bumps along the way.

I think this is a must read for anyone who follows World politics and economics and its impact on the lives of humanity.

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Understanding the future that will become our history

Just thinking about what will happen tomorrow, let alone what will happen each decade for the next 100 years, is difficult. Yet, George Friedman, in his trademark methodical, logical, and mostly unbiased manner, does the difficult and in an enjoyable manner.

The book starts out discussing the present state of affairs in the world; and, decade by decade dissects the players, motives and technological innovations that will most strikingly affect the next 100 years. This is not to say that George Friedman expects what he writes to occur with 100% accuracy. Instead, the book uses history as a guide to explain why events will unfold as analyzed by George Friedman (proving once more that history forgotten is doomed to be repeated).

What I find very interesting about the book and its predictions, is that it comes across as the most likely of many options. Most striking is the prediction of another world war in the late part of the 21st century. However, unlike Nostrodamus, there are no vague references or innuendos. Clearly, Friedman has expectations for the US and the rest of the world; and, if his analysis and process is correct, makes a case for a new type of study or profession.

Most important is the recognition that internal political forces (such as national parties or political movements) have far less effect on the actual international relations between nations. Rather, it is the evolution of regional human interactions, driven by fears and memories, that create the future that will become our history.

Again, a thoroughly enjoyable book that is well worth the time and effort.

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Excellent Mental Exercise With a Caveat

I found the book to be an excellent mental exercise, challenging my previously held beliefs and looking at world situations through new eyes. I enjoyed Mr. Firedman's logical analysis of history and projecting certain aspects of it into the future. I think he carefully avoided painting the future with too broad a brush, but narrowing his projections to justifiable and reasonable circumstances. As we all know, too narrow a view just leads to too specific a forecast.

My only concern is that the author does not address the significance of air and space achievements. I understand the importance of the navy and controling the shipping lanes; however, does that mean that air force superiority and/or satellite capabilities will never advance to a stage of being of strategic importance. In our recent wars, both played major roles in assisting the US with military success (however success is defined). I'm not a Star Wars fan (neither the movie nor President Reagan's military vision), but there is some credence to it, especially during the next 100 years. If I was facing a strong American Navy, I basically would have three alternatives: (1) acquiescence; (2) parity (hardly unlikely in the short to mid term); or (3) mitigation (neutralize it) by creating a more formidable force.

Can anyone predict 100 years out? No. But we can can think through some likely scenarios, and, as it's been said before, "govern ourselves accordingly".

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reviews: page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

?Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world.? ?George Friedman

In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future?offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century.
The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era?with changes in store, including:

? The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude?replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia.
? China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power.
? A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly.
? Technology will focus on space?both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications.
? The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century.

Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead.

For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.Stratfor.com

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