While the book is good, he should have dropped some of the derogatory references

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	• A Mathematician at the Ballpark: Odds and Probabilities for Baseball Fans Ken Ross Plume, 2007 - 224 pages average customer review:based on 22 reviews view larger image
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A good probability and stats book

There really are only a few connections to baseball, and even fewer on the field. However the author does a good job of explaining basic principles of probabilty. There are some good chapters about lotteries and other random games. Overall, a worthy book.

Uses baseball to illustrate freshman statistics

Not intended as comprehensive statistical study of baseball. Rather, its goal is to teach a few of the freshman probability-statistics concepts via baseball examples. This may be too narrow a niche to appeal to many readers. But if you want such a book, this is a well written and easy to read one. Has several useful nuggets for the teacher (Derek Jeter and David Justice exemplifying Simpson's paradox; analysis of streaks data; analysis of a cute gambling strategy "bet on underdog whose fan base is relatively very small") and useful references to further statistical work on baseball.

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Not enough baseball to satisfy...

I seem to recall taking some freshmen math class from Professor Ross back in my days at the University of Oregon, but the details of that class remain as unmemorable as this book. If you already have a reasonable knowledge of basic probability, it's unlikely that you'll learn much here. His treatment of baseball betting in Chapter 4 is just about the most obvious idea imagineable (bet on underdogs) and not suprisingly doesn't work all that well. His analysis seems just to skim the surface of a very deep and complex game. There just isn't much to satisfy.

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While the book is good, he should have dropped some of the derogatory references

Baseball is a very cerebral game, both on and off the field. Overall athletic ability is less a precondition for success on the field than in any other major sport. Off the field, baseball fans use statistics in their arguments more than in any other sport. If your audience is interested in baseball, then it is easy to create scenarios that can be used to teach probability and statistics.
In chapter one, Ross uses batting averages, slugging percentage, on base percentage and on base plus slugging to explore the question, "Who's the best hitter?" Like so many before him, he reaches no definitive answer and is only able to come to some general conclusions. Chapters two through four examine basic probability, odds and expectation. Chapter four is entitled "What Would Pete Rose Do?", which is a derogatory reference to Rose's history of betting on sports and then lying about it. Unfortunately, Rose's name appears nowhere in the body of the chapter, although the coverage of the topic is excellent.
The title of chapter five is "Will the Yankees Win if Steinbrenner is Gone?" and deals with conditional probability. As was the case with chapter four, the name Steinbrenner never appears in the body of the chapter. The chapter that I found the most interesting was number six, "How Long Should the World Series Last?" Given that the probability of each team winning a particular game is the same and the games are independent, it is easy to determine the probability that the series will go a certain number of games. Chapters seven and eight deal with streaks, sequences of victories and how likely they are and given a streak, the probability that it will continue. Whatever you call them: streaks, momentum or "being hot", they all describe the most misunderstood concept in sports. Ross reaches the same conclusion that all others who have studied it reached. Namely, that there is no such thing as momentum. Good teams win consecutive games because they are good, not because they are hot. Strings of consecutive successes are very predictable and the higher the percentage of victory, the more frequent and lengthy their winning streaks will be. It is only the perception of the situation that leads people to believe otherwise.
Overall Ross does a good job in using baseball situations to demonstrate the basics of probability and statistics. However, some knowledge of the game is necessary if you are to understand it. Unfortunately, he chooses to make the titles of two chapter's negative comments on two of baseball's major figures. I personally dislike Pete Rose and George Steinbrenner a lot, considering them both to have had an overall negative impact on major league baseball. Nevertheless, I see no benefit to making the negative references to them when it is only the title of the chapter and not the point of the chapter.

Published in Journal of Recreational Mathematics, reprinted with permission

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reviews: page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

In A Mathematician at the Ballpark, professor Ken Ross reveals the math behind the stats. This lively and accessible book shows baseball fans how to harness the power of made predictions and better understand the game. Using real-world examples from historical and modern-day teams, Ross shows:
? Why on-base and slugging percentages are more important than batting averages
? How professional odds makers predict the length of a seven-game series
? How to use mathematics to make smarter bets

A Mathematician at the Ballpark is the perfect guide to the science of probability for the stats-obsessed baseball fans?and, with a detailed new appendix on fantasy baseball, an essential tool for anyone involved in a fantasy league.

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