An Excellent Beginner's Guide to the Use and Misuse of Social Statistics

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	• Damned Lies and Statistics: Untangling Numbers from the Media, Politicians, and Activists Joel Best University of California Press, 2001 - 196 pages average customer review:based on 30 reviews view larger image
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highly recommended

Damn Lies and Statistics

This truly excellent small book gives a thorough and non-mathematical overview of the dangers and usefulness of statistics. Giving real-life examples of statistical manipulation (without beating one over the head with mathematical formulae). A marvelous way to look at Social Statistics with an inquisitive and educated eye - without having to know the mathematical basis for statistical analysis.
AS an undergrad I actually did graduate level work in statistics but enough years have passed that I would be hard pressed to use the knowledge. This book gave me an excellent way to look at statistics in such a way that they are now much more useful to me, not just in my clinical practice but in reading the newspaper.
Emilio J. Vazquez, MD

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Great book

First and foremost, as an avid fan of the topic of Statistics in general, I felt compelled to read this book. I had read another of Joel Best's book, More Damned Lies and Statistics: How Numbers Confuse Public Issues, and it was shocking to say the least. In the process of deciding which book I was going to read I contemplated between How to Lie with Statistics by Darrell Huff, but I felt that book was more of a `pocket-guide' instead of a dense book. Also, I wanted to read a book that was perhaps more current, in terms of publication than Huff's book. Published in 2001, Best's book shows some current social statistics, which perhaps may be more relevant in our time period.
Upon finishing Best's book I notice that it was jam-packed with information that the average person wouldn't know about every day statistics. For example, he touches on the topic of AIDS statistics, and prostitution statistics, in an effort to show that the statistics are skewed. In my opinion, I think it was very appropriate that a sociologist wrote this book because, it is virtually a reflection of how society reports, views, and interprets statistics. It is mind-stirring when he shows that statistics on the same subject cannot be accurately compared if they are from a different time-period. Due to the fact that Ceteris Paribas is not present when comparing statistics from different time periods, in essence they are like comparing, as Best puts it, "apples to oranges".
Also, another startling area of the book is when Best describes the misunderstanding and the fallacies that occur with reporting and interpreting statistics. For instance, in chapter three of his book, he reports that an estimated 150 thousand women are diagnosed with anorexia, or better known as the most common eating disorders among young women. While that may be a `good' statistic, people began to misinterpret that statistic with the conclusion that 150 thousand women die because of anorexia. This fallacy occurred because people assume that anorexia can be fatal, and since 150 thousand of them had it, they then assumed all of them died. This, as Best puts it, is far from the truth, as less than 100 of them actually die (roughly around 70). He gives other examples of common social problems with statistics and shows that a post-hoc fallacy is very common in a world where people are rather naïve when it comes to statistics in general.
Perhaps the notion of statistics causing social problems is one too radical for the average American to recognize. How can statistics be the cause of problems? Best also addresses that a `bad' statistics can cause social problems. On page fifty, Best explains how "measurement decisions are hidden" and often times some statistical reports ignore controversies about measurement, and even well-established measures can be controversial. Not surprisingly, some of the measurement decisions, are just plain wrong. The reports to some statistics that the media feeds us are just completely wrong.
Best mentions another rather relevant problem; "questionable definitions". He cites that often times the definitions for a particular statistic are vague and can easily be manipulated. He asks us to consider the flurry of media coverage about `epidemics'. We must ask ourselves, what is an epidemic? More importantly, how does the particular author reporting the statistic define what an epidemic is? Making a vague statement like that can be very dangerous to society. It can spread false fears, and in essence, a misrepresented sense of reality. Another important factor when determining if a statistic is manipulated is based on sample size. Best gives us examples of how a small sample size is really a poor basis for generalizations. For example, let's consider that I ask 3 women to give their view on abortion and they can either choose pro-life or pro-choice. My results are going to be 0%, 33.3%, 66.6%, or 100%, depending on their responses. However, it is absurd to think that a true conclusion can be drawn from such a small sample size.
I feel this book is a great book to read, not only for entertainment purposes, but also as a preventative measure regarding everyday statistics that we encounter. In his final chapter "The Critical Approach", he requests that we use a method of critical thinking when viewing statistics. The author encourages us as a society, to interpret statistics in a skeptical manner, but warns us not to be cynical. We cannot just take statistics at face value. I feel that we hold a responsibility to inform ourselves and view new information with a skeptics view. It is vital to prevent social chaos by swallowing every bit of numbers from the media, politicians, and activists. I think that perhaps if society took a less naïve approach to things of this nature, then we would not have so many "stat wars" in our society. Finally, the most important part of the book is that it encourages the reader to take a skeptic view on social statistics. I recommend this book to virtually any active member of our culture.

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It does what it is supposed to do

This book does what I believe it was intended to do very well: It provides a window through which the general public can get a first glimpse of the dangers of accepting statistics as absolute. The book's length, title, and repetition of certain common statistical flaws address are tailor made for the general reader.

Damned Lies and Statistics is on my required reading list. If more people understood how they were being numerically manipulated from all angles, we'd all be better off. And I believe that is the ultimate job of a writer.

An Excellent Beginner's Guide to the Use and Misuse of Social Statistics

"Statistics," Joel Best asserts in his concluding chapter, "are a sort of fetish," borrowing a term from anthropology to describe objects that different cultures invest with magical powers. "We think of statistics as facts that we discover, not as numbers we create. But of course, statistics do not exist independently; people have to create them. Reality is complicated, and every statistic is someone's summary, a simplification of that complexity." And as they say, therein lies the tale.

DAMNED LIES AND STATISTICS offers an outstanding introduction to the use and misuse of social statistics. This book is not a mathematical treatise - far from it. In straightforward prose filled with real world examples, Mr. Best deconstructs the processes by which social statistics are created (sometimes as little more than educated guesses) and take on a life of their own, primarily through blind and unquestioning repetition by the media. He also delineates how such statistics are sometimes mutated, misinterpreted, misapplied, and manipulated.

In Mr. Best's view, there are no perfect statistics, just better or worse ones. Every statistic involves human choices: defining what to measure, determining how to measure it, deciding whom to count or how to count it, and choosing how to deal with unreported cases (the dark figure) of whatever is being counted. Not only does every statistic contain identifiable but generally unrecognized strengths, weaknesses, and dark figures, but many of the most controversial and heavily publicized statistics were created by people in advocacy positions. As Mr. Best repeatedly points out, advocates use statistics to reinforce public concern about the seriousness of their pet issues. Since large statistics capture more attention, publicity, and financial contributions for the advocacy group than small ones, issue advocates will naturally be drawn toward problem definitions, counting measures, survey methods, and assumptions most supportive of their goals.

Mr. Best does a commendable job of citing numerous real world instances of bad or misleading statistics, including several whose original meanings were gradually transformed into altogether different interpretations. His examples range over a full panoply of public domain issues - female deaths from anorexia, prevalence of church arsons, homicide incidence by race, teen suicides, the number of crack babies, attendance figures for the Million Man March, the number of homeless people, the number of children killed with guns, and so forth. The author breaks down his examples into readily understandable classifications, such as bad guesses, deceptive definitions, confusing questions, biased sampling, misinterpretation of results, and improper comparisons between groups or over time. Only in his final chapter, "Thinking about Social Statistics," does his penchant for classifications lead him astray. His assessment of how to address the prevalence and too-willing consumption of bad statistics offers little more than a call for the public to stop being naïve or hypercritical about numbers and instead become critical consumers. He offers no call for improved practical education about statistics in schools, no demand for better training on this issue in schools of journalism, no request that the media research and report more frequently (even as background on their websites) the methods and assumptions behind the numbers they report. In an age where issue-measuring numbers multiply uncontrollably and are available instantaneously, the public needs more reality check protection and online access to this background information than ever before.

DAMNED LIES AND STATISTICS is an easily readable and informative introduction to the human problems of statistics. I recommend it (along with Cynthia Crossen's equally valuable TAINTED TRUTH) as an interesting supplement for high school advanced placement or college statistics classes or first classes in current affairs or sociology. No mathematical background is required, but students and other readers will find much in this text to discuss and contemplate. I recommend this book highly for people of modest math backgrounds who are concerned about the rampant and seemingly uncontrollable growth of fetish-like numbers that purport to define our major social issues. Mr. Best would argue that there is always more to these numbers than immediately meets the eye.

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reviews: page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Does the number of children gunned down double each year? Does anorexia kill 150,000 young women annually? Do white males account for only a sixth of new workers? Startling statistics shape our thinking about social issues. But all too often, these numbers are wrong. This book is a lively guide to spotting bad statistics and learning to think critically about these influential numbers. Damned Lies and Statistics is essential reading for everyone who reads or listens to the news, for students, and for anyone who relies on statistical information to understand social problems.
Joel Best bases his discussion on a wide assortment of intriguing contemporary issues that have garnered much recent media attention, including abortion, cyberporn, homelessness, the Million Man March, teen suicide, the U.S. census, and much more. Using examples from the New York Times, the Washington Post, and other major newspapers and television programs, he unravels many fascinating examples of the use, misuse, and abuse of statistical information.
In this book Best shows us exactly how and why bad statistics emerge, spread, and come to shape policy debates. He recommends specific ways to detect bad statistics, and shows how to think more critically about "stat wars," or disputes over social statistics among various experts. Understanding this book does not require sophisticated mathematical knowledge; Best discusses the most basic and most easily understood forms of statistics, such as percentages, averages, and rates.
This accessible book provides an alternative to either naively accepting the statistics we hear or cynically assuming that all numbers are meaningless. It shows how anyone can become a more intelligent, critical, and empowered consumer of the statistics that inundate both the social sciences and our media-saturated lives.

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