Then as now, the depth of Davies' own research into both the history and the contemporary study of the H1N1 killer flu virus is as impressive as it is extensive. THE DEVIL'S FLU ranks with the best of medical non-fiction narrative on this unfortunately again-timely subject.
A startling fact about the original 1918 plague that devastated humanity --notable, since it occurred within the lifespan of many still alive today-- is the collective amnesia that so often surrounds that event. Few Americans realize that it's extremely probable that they have a family member only a generation or two ago who fell prey to the deadly Spanish Flu pandemic; tales of when the cry "bring out your dead!" echoed along American streets were seldom passed from those who witnessed it to those of us who descended from the survivors. It takes a trip to virtually any cemetery to bring the death toll home to us, as marker after marker identifies the victims of the 1918 flu pandemic. Worldwide, deaths in 1918-1919 totalled at least 40 million humans, and very likely as many as 100 million-- all within a timespan measured in months. As I write this, an avian influenza virus not unlike that which triggered the 1918 pandemic, if forcing the mass slaughter of chickens and other birds throughout Asia. It is an attempt to forestall the very real possibility that the virus (which already has infected human victims through bird-to-human transmission, and currently has a 70 percent mortality rate among human victims) could acquire genes which would allow for human-to-human transmission.
During research for FINAL EPIDEMIC, I interviewed dozens of medical researchers and epidemeologists. Without exception, each stated that their greatest fear was a resurgence of a influenza virus similar to the 1918 variant, which through incubation in humans mutated into a unprecedented killer of humanity. Based on the cyclic nature of flu pandemics, I was told, mankind was already overdue-- and, worse: woefully unprepared-- for such an emerging viral Shiva.
Influenza was, and remains, a universal threat: As A.W. Crosby wrote in "America's Forgotten Pandemic," his own classic examination of the 1918 Spanish Flu, "I know how not to get AIDS. I don't know how not to get the flu."
Davies' book on this reemerging threat deserves attention, as he reminds us that this kind of horrific killer virus is considered by the medical community a certainity to arise again. At best, we can only prepare ourselves -- and wait.
--Earl MerkelAuthor, FINAL EPIDEMIC (PenguinPutnam 2002)and DIRTY FIRE (PenguinPutnam 2003)