Deterrence and Attribution helped once will help now

books:

	• Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe Graham Allison Holt Paperbacks, 2005 - 288 pages average customer review:based on 34 reviews view larger image
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highly recommended

Deterrence and Attribution helped once will help now

During the Cold War from the 1950s until the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Soviet Union, we faced adversaries (including China) that could with impunity launch ICBMs and airborne bomber fleets. In response we spent billions building radars to attribute the nuclear attack to the country which launched the ICBMs and bombers.

It worked.

We're here.

The strategy was called deterrence. Mutually Assured Destruction. MAD.

Today we need to employ the same strategy of Attribution and Deterrence against our new nuclear armed adversaries.

The delivery system they are selecting will not necessarily be limited to ICMBs and bomber fleets. It will included weaponized civilian transportation systems. Airplanes and sea containers. 9/11 was a sample of a scary future.

We can stop it.

Let's build a nuclear sensor network. Attribution and Deterrence worked once.

It can and will work again.

Matthew Schor, Trojan Defense.

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Well Written and Cogent Analysis

One of the best books on the subject. Without a lot of hype and drama, the author captures the danges from this threat. Of particular interest are his recommendations to the US Government on changes that should be implemented if we are to avoid this looming threat. Most authors lack the experience and perspective needed to formulate a recommended path forward.

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A must read!

We were surprised by 9/11 even though we should not have been. Let's not be surprised by a nuclear version that wipes an American (or Russian, or Israeli) city off the map -- and possibly creates a crisis that sparks complete destruction of our civilization, just as the assassination of the Archduke in Sarajevo in 1914 set off World War I.

Graham Allison knows his stuff and makes a strong argument for action to avert such a disaster. THIS IS A MUST READ!! If you are already in touch with the urgency of the situation and need a quick shot of hope, jump ahead to chapters 7 and 8 where Allison outlines what we need to do, and then go back and read the early parts.

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Powerfully written and sobering

I always approach books like this with skepticism: What's the author's agenda? Of course, everyone has an agenda, everyone leans left or right to some extent, but Graham Allison seems to have found a balance so many before him haven't. He presents a solid argument (that a nuclear attack on the U.S. by a terrorist organization is preventable, but probably, in the way of the way of the world, inevitable) with solid evidence. I didn't get the sense that he's pointing his finger at one political party or one group. More that people in our government, in general, need to wake up to certain facts about who can get nuclear devices and how they would use them. I think his "solution" is pie-in-the-sky stuff, but better to have an alternative to the status quo when you write a book like this, than nothing. A frightening read.

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The Ultimate Depressing Thing

What is?

Nuclear terrorism, according to Warren Buffet, who should be adept in evaluating the probability of future events. He goes on to say, "It will happen. It's inevitable. I don't see any way that it won't happen".

And yet the subtitle of is book is "The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe". The author is not a pessimist. He writes, "The central but largely unrecognized truth is that nuclear terrorism is preventable. As a simple matter of physics, without fissile material, there can be no nuclear explosion. There is a vast, but not unlimited, amount of highly enriched uranium and weapons-grade plutonium in the world, and it is within our power to keep it secure. The United States does not lose gold from Fort Knox, nor Russia treasures from the Kremlin Armory. Thus all that the United States and its allies have to do to prevent nuclear terrorism is to prevent terrorists from acquiring a weapon or nuclear material. The `all' required calls for a substantial, sustained, but nonetheless finite undertaking that can be accomplished by a finite effort. It is a challenge to our will, our conviction, and our courage, but not to our technical capacity".

The first part of the book deals with the nature of the threat. Key points include the following:

* Numerous terrorist groups have the motive and capacity to seek out nuclear weapons.

* These weapons exceed anything else in terms of deadly effect and terror producing potential.

* Nuclear material and weapons are poorly guarded in the former Soviet Union and developing world.

* Nuclear proliferators such as Pakistan exacerbate the situation.

* An actual weapon is easy to put together once the fissile material has been obtained.

* There are many relatively straightforward delivery methods and routes for such a weapon.

Taking all this together, Buffet is right and nuclear terrorism seems indeed inevitable.

In the second part of the book the author presents his approach to dealing with the threat.

His objective is "A World of Three No's" - no loose nukes, no new nascent nukes, and no new nuclear weapons states.

How do we accomplish this? Allison sets it forth in "A Road Map of Seven Yesses". These are:

* Making the prevention of nuclear terrorism an absolute national priority;

* Fighting a strategically focused war on terrorism;

* Conducting a humble foreign policy;

* Building a global alliance against nuclear terrorism;

* Creating the intelligence capabilities required for success in the war on nuclear terrorism;

* Dealing with dirty bombs;

* Constructing a multilayered defense.

While this all seems reasonable enough, I couldn't help coming away with the sense that while clearly necessary, these actions are not in and of themselves sufficient to address the immensity of the risk. And even if they were, there is a question as to how they are to be accomplished.

For example, the author calls for a stop to the new national production of fissile material "beginning with Iran".

What's left out is how.

And this is but one piece of what needs to be done...

Anyway, this is a good, if sobering book. It should be required reading for whoever the new occupant of the White House will be.

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reviews: page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

"Allison's comprehensive but accessible treatment of this vital subject is a major contribution to public understanding." -The New York Times Book Review

Americans in the twenty-first century are keenly aware of the many forms of terrorism: hijackings, biological attacks, chemical weapons. But the deadliest form is almost too scary to think about-a terrorist group exploding a nuclear device in an American city.

In this urgent call to action, Graham Allison, one of America's leading experts on nuclear weapons and national security, presents the evidence for two provocative, compelling conclusions. First, if policy makers in Washington keep doing what they are currently doing about the threat, a nuclear terrorist attack on America is inevitable. Second, the surprising and largely unrecognized good news is that nuclear terrorism is, in fact, preventable. In these pages, Allison offers an ambitious but feasible blueprint for eliminating the possibility of nuclear terrorist attacks, if we are willing to face the issue squarely.

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