Sadly funny (in hindsight) closing remarks, however, when mentioning criteria for the gorilla-game theory to work: "...you need equity markets which have... high legal integrity... in the realms of ethics and legal integrity, US markets lead the world in policing their own ranks...". In light of the many recent financial scandals I'm sure the authors will rephrase this in the next edition.
A popular pastime for the past 50 years (and possibly before that) has been to look at the stocks that would have made you the most money in the last 10 or 20 years and then to devise an investment approach to find the next ones going forward that will do as well or better. I have lost count of how many books I have read that have taken this approach.
I found the Gorilla Game to be refreshingly above the pack in this area. The authors do an excellent job of describing some of the ways that technologies get adopted, when the stocks do well (and when they don't), and when to buy and sell stocks in technology companies. They also devise a fairly detailed, somewhat risk-controlled investment process, and detail how it would have done in a number of case histories. From the backward-looking perspective, the book is solid.
The weakness of such backward looking methods shows up in their new material in the revised edition (1999) on the Internet. Although some aspects of their model apply to the Internet, many do not. They are left needing to vaguely explain how so much money was made so quickly in Internet stocks (before they began to plummet to nothing in March 2000). Their explanation is actually pretty solid, but they never quite come out and say that their methodology will not get you all of the fast-growing stocks in technology. I doubt if any methodology could do that for you.
They needed not be defensive. No methodology is perfect. The main weakness of this one is that is designed around semiconductors, software, and computers. The technology patterns can look a lot different in future technologies. For example, what will happen with companies like Gemstar that lead in new television technologies that could disrupt the Internet for direct marketing? The reason this point is important is that the barriers to switching are higher in the technologies studied here than in many other areas. If you get into a low cost of switching sector (like business to consumer marketing on the Internet), you could invest in an industry leader and still lose your shirt. Although the book acknowledges these issues, it probably doesn't create a substantial enough warning.
The book is aimed at the medium knowledge investor (about the markets and technology). I hope they bring out a more advanced version. They decided not to go into specialized semiconductors like analog devices where enormous profits may lie in the future, because of concerns about not going over the heads of readers. A lot of the best run technology companies with enormous growth potential in markets with high bariers to competitors were not discussed in this book. I am sure most readers would be willing to spend some time learning about these other markets in order to make enormous gains.
Despite my quibbles, this is a fine book that will help all but those who are already quite knowledgeable about technology companies and technology investing. Good luck in capturing those irresistible gains in the future! Perhaps you will be the first person you know to identify the next irresistible growth enterprise that creates over a thousand to one gain! I hope you do.
May you be that one person in one hundred who outperforms the market over a lifetime.
Otherwise, I suggest you play the odds and buy indexed mutual funds. John Bogle's book, Common Sense about Mutual Funds, will be very helpful to you in this regard.
If there is any weakness it is that very little is provided in terms of how do you value these companies. Most past "gorillas" came public with very modest valuations but in today's markets many companies are coming out at higher valuations, providing less upside in the long-term. The reason is that many investors are more astute than in the past and are seeking to find these "gorillas." Therefore, the problem that lies before the investor is how to find the gorilla before the pros do. Too many pros and individuals tried to find them in the past 2 years and only got burned (they were all greedy going after the hopes of generating such returns and the possibility that one would be the "800 lb gorilla.")
If you want to learn about technology life cycles, product differentiation and what to look for in the next decade's giants I recommend this book but recognize that it provides little in terms of valuation exercises.
The Possibilities Are Staggering:
Had you invested $10,000 in Cisco Systems back in early 1990, your investment would now be worth $3,650,000
Similarly, a $10,000 investment made in Microsoft in 1986 would be valued at more than $4,721,000 today
$10,000 invested in Yahoo! in 1996 would today be worth $317,000
How do you get in on those deals--especially if you're not a Silicon Valley insider? How do you buy the high-tech win-ners and avoid the losers? How do you find the Yahoo!s, Microsofts, and Ciscos of tomorrow?
The answers are here, in this newly revised edition of the national bestseller The Gorilla Game. The book reveals the dynamics driving the market for high-tech stocks and out-lines the forces that catapult a select number of compa-nies to "gorilla" status--dominating the markets they serve in the way that Yahoo! dominates internet portals, Microsoft dominates software operating systems, and Cisco dominates hardware for data networks.
Follow the rules of The Gorilla Game and you will learn how to identify and invest in the "gorilla candidates" early on--while they are still fighting for dominance, and while their stocks are still cheap. When the dust clears and one company clearly attains leadership in its market, you'll reap the enormous returns that foresighted investors in high-tech companies deserve.
This new edition of The Gorilla Game has been updated and revised throughout, with new focus and new insights into choosing the internet gorillas--the companies that are destined to dominate internet commerce.
Bestselling author Geoffrey A. Moore is one of the world's leading consultants in high-tech marketing strategy. Here you'll find his groundbreaking ideas about tech-nology markets that made his previous books bestsellers, combined with the work of Paul Johnson, a top Wall Street technology analyst, and Tom Kippola, a high-tech consul-tant and highly successful private investor. Together they have discovered and played the gorilla game and now give readers the real rules for winning in the world of high-tech investing.
Step by step you'll learn how to spot a high-tech market that is about to undergo rapid growth and development, how to identify and spread investments across the potential gorillas within the market, and how to narrow your investments to the single, emerging leader--the gorilla--as the market matures.
High-tech investing can be extremely risky, but investors who learn to play the gorilla game can avoid many of the traps and pitfalls and instead start capitalizing on untold profits. Personal wealth is only a gorilla game away.