Futuring - Its for all of us, Its the future

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	• Futuring: The Exploration of the Future Edward Cornish World Future Society, 2005 - 313 pages average customer review:based on 8 reviews view larger image
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highly recommended

Good introduction to futuring methods.

I enjoyed reading the book, which was required for my college course. I learned about the numerous futuring techniques avaiable to help one anticipate future events. I have a much better appreciation of the world around be as a result.

Futuring - Its for all of us, Its the future

First, I want to say that the topic of "futures" is not for all people. One must want to be able to think beyond and use available tools in the area of forecasting. Cornish's Futuring - The Exploration of the Future is one of those tools. Cornish truly has written a book that assists the Future's reader in forecasting the future via exposing risk and the effects of that risk on one's managing or potential management of either their own life's future or that of their respective organization..
Second, Cornish's Futuring - The Exploration of the Future is written in an understandable format that could draw unsuspecting readers in to future forecasting by providing the foundation for folks to remove their inhibitions about controlling their future.
This book is more than just about scenarios, offering a convincing and comprehensive understanding of how scenarios can and should be used as a form of strategic management.
Along the way, the reader is treated to clear and helpful explanations of such things as "the history of futures explorers" (ch. 1), "the great transformations" caused by change (ch. 2), "the six supertrends shaping the future" (ch. 3), and "various futures methods of change" (ch. 6), among others.
Overall, methodologies such as scenarios are examined and understood by Cornish (the founder of the World Future Society and the editor of its "flagship" publication the Futurist Magazine), are useful tools. They are foremost forecasting tools which are best used by both organizations, as well as the solitary planner at their workbench.
If you want to understand how the future can be more accurately perceived (though not predicted) then this is a worthy addition to the library of any management strategist or student of the future.

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Great introduction to thinking ahead

If you're new to the study of the future and want to find out why it's important, what methodologies it uses, and how it's applied in the real world, this book is an excellent place to start, and it includes an extensive bibliography for further study. If you've already done a lot of reading on futurism, much of this will be familiar, but it will still provide good background and historical perspective.
The early part of the book, particularly chapters 2 and 3, is reminiscent of the writings of Alvin & Heidi Toffler, discussing the history of technological revolutions and outlining six "supertrends" that will shape the future. The book takes on its own unique trajectory starting in chapter 4, which addresses trends, cycles, patterns, and the tension between stability and change. Methodologies are outlined in chapters 6 through 8, including expert polling (such as the Delphi process), gaming, modeling & simulation, "visioning," scenarios, and their variants. I was hoping for a bit more depth in this part of the book, but at least it gives a first look at the nuts-and-bolts of futuring. Other sources are available to supplement this.
I found chapters 11 through 14 to be an interesting trip through the futurist movement of the past century, highlighting key individuals, organizations, and their effect on societies in different parts of the world. Chapters 15 and 16 end the book on a more philosophical note, arguing that our duty to coming generations requires us to actively cultivate our futuring skills.
The most important points that I came away with:
1) It's a mistake to simply resign oneself to whatever comes and view futurism as little more than science fiction. To do so is to forego the opportunity to shape the future.
2) Futuring is not about predicting specific events or future conditions - it's a way of framing an array of probable futures to help reach those that are desirable and be prepared for those that are not.
3) A multidisciplinary approach is essential. Complex interactions between various technologies, economic developments, geopolitical conditions, etc., must be taken into account to the extent possible.
In my job, I do a lot of research and writing that could be construed as futurist work. Customers typically have no problems with the first two points above, but the third one is a hard sell. People want to know what's likely to happen in their technology, their market, their area of operations, but often care little for other seemingly irrelevant activities. That's like driving a car with dim headlights, no mirrors, and no vision out the sides of the vehicle. Cornish's book is like a driver's education course that addresses those deficiencies.

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The future will be better than I thought!

Sponsored by the World Future Society, this book brings into one volume dozens of the world's "experts" in many areas of life and science and religion and technology and government to project their visions and scenarios of the next 25 years. I find their opinions hopeful, and, although very "man can do anything" in outlook, encouraging. We can create a better future than previous generations could dream of. "While it would be pleasant to envision a world free from the pressure of material want, a more realistic projection, based on the evidence, is of a world in which generation after generation thinks it needs only another 10 to 20 percent more income to be perfectly happy."--page 32.
My future will be great! Because I am grateful for the past.
Jon

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The Case for Future-Oriented Thinking

Time's arrow points ever forward, the past irrevocably gone, the future only a guess. We temporal beings spend many of our present moments in thought about the future - predicting, planning, worrying. But few plans survive contact with reality. Is time spent thinking about the future time wasted? Should we just live for the present and let the future take care of itself?

Edward Cornish of the World Future Society makes a forceful case for future-oriented thinking, or "futuring", in this interesting book. More than predicting the future, his argument is that by thinking about it and planning for it, we gain power to change the future and make our dreams real.

The book covers a broad swath: prediction techniques and idea mapping, classification of trends and 'supertrends', the recent increase in the rate of change, and people's desires for stability. Cornish suggests areas where the techniques of the book may be helpful in the personal realm, as well as on the large scale. Perhaps the most inspiring chapter is historical - a discussion of the significant changes of the 20th century.

The past 100 years saw vastly more technological progress than any before. But the supreme optimism and belief in progress at the beginning of the century was transformed through wars, nuclear terror, and environmental degradation into strong doubts about progress, and the prevalence of much more pessimistic views about the future. Cornish makes a strong case that success, both individually and as a society, depends on having a positive vision of the future and striving to make it happen.

The book does not try to make its own predictions, rather showing how they are made and can be used. Some of Cornish's specific examples seem not as well thought out as one might expect - for example he lumps energy resources and the environment together in a degradation "supertrend", when they really need to be treated quite distinctly.

A long bibliography section gives brief summaries of well over a hundred books on the subject, only a few of which I had heard of before. An updated list and much more can be found on the World Future Society website at [...].

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reviews: page 1, 2

The most important thing happening today is not reported in newspapers or on the TV news. It?s a global transformation of technology and society that is creating an age of hyperchange.

Since the future is hurtling toward us at breakneck speed, foresight is the great need of our times. We must think ahead if we are to cope with the hurricane-force changes now bashing at every aspect of our lives. This acceleration of change brings enormous opportunities as well as great dangers.

Most of us know better than to drive down a highway at eighty miles an hour without looking at the road ahead. But when it comes to steering our careers and businesses, we hardly ever consider what?s coming toward us. We often wind up in a nasty "crash" that we could have avoided if we had better anticipated possible developments.

This is where futuring can help.

Futuring is the art and science of exploring the future. It offers methods and techniques that can help you understand trends, identify opportunities and avoid dangers. Futuring can help you understand possible future developments, make better decisions, develop worthwhile goals, and find the means to achieve them. Futuring is a powerful way to help you and your organization to create a better future.

Virtually anyone can benefit from learning the skills and perspectives of futuring:
* Businesspeople can anticipate profitable new markets and innovative products.
* Investors can be ready to get in on the ground floor of emerging industries and new technologies.
* Educators and parents can help ensure that young people are properly prepared for the new world they?ll inherit.
* Students can plan out careers in highly rewarding professions.
* Concerned citizens and policy makers will find practical ways to help guide their communities and organizations to a successful future.

Futuring will open your eyes to the world of the future and how you can prepare for the opportunities and risks ahead. In addition, Futuring will guide you through the history of serious thinking about the future, including the development of the idea of progress in the seventeenth century to the disillusionment with progress that came in the twentieth century.

You will learn how far-sighted military planners, trend-watchers in business, and scholars in think tanks developed ways to think scientifically about the future so that leaders in government and business could prepare for the opportunities and risks ahead. Now you, too, can benefit from their discoveries.

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