Finally Time To Debunk The Energy Myths

books:


	• Gusher of Lies: The Dangerous Delusions of Energy Independence Robert Bryce PublicAffairs, 2008 - 384 pages average customer review:based on 33 reviews view larger image
	for more information click here

missing some aspects of the problem

This is an excellent book and well written. It is slightly out of date in that the price of oil has risen so quickly, but that is more a problem with a jittery oil market and not the date on the book. The arguments are clear and timely. My one and only problem with the book is that it may underestimate the problem that global warming poses in the very near future.

Global warming as described by biologists may not be just another problem to which the economies of the world will sensibly adjust. Rather it may be an extinction event that will cause the deaths of many hundreds of millions in this century. I hate to talk like a catastophist but this possibility is a "game changer" in the oil debate. I am a big fan of Bjorn Lomborg and his rational economic view of global warming. And this book is very much in line with his thinking. Both agree that global warming is real, it is happening, it is too late to do much about it, but we will have to adjust through rational economic policies. But if global warming is truely an extinction event that will change the fundamental characteristics of the planet as described by biologists and computer modelers who ought to know, then all this careful economic analysis gets thrown out the window. ( I would suggest "Under a Green Sky" by Peter Ward for this biological perspective. ) But if you want to read a great book on energy policy this is the one to start with. Without being a spoiler I should mention that the author is in favor of nuclear, photovoltaics, wind, compressed natural gas and algae grown diesel. But none of these no matter how quickly developed will replace our growing need for oil imports in this century. Forget ethanol, this was a scam from the beginning.

for more information click here

Interesting but there are omissions

Bryce states energy independence is a political construct reiterated by every President since 1973. It is promoted by everybody including Bush, Obama, McCain, Al Gore in An Inconvenient Truth: The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do About It, and Thomas Friedman in The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century. Energy independence is used as an argument for fighting terrorism, reforming the Middle East, enhancing energy security, insulating us from oil embargos, getting us out of Iraq, and lowering oil prices. But, it is utopian.

Energy independence does not achieve its objectives. Even if we did not import oil, we'd be vested in the Middle East stability as oil prices are set globally. Any disruption in supply anywhere causes oil prices to spike on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Despite the energy independence mantra, US oil imports have risen from 38% of U.S. oil consumption in 1973 to 60% currently. This is despite our economy being 40% more energy efficient. This is the Jevons Paradox explained in The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy: "Efficiency fails to curb demand because it lets more people do more... faster - and more/faster invariably swamps ... efficiency gains." Terrorists fund themselves with crime, drug, but not oil. The Middle East has never reformed itself despite long stints of low oil prices.

"The Ethanol Scam" chapter is excellent. If all U.S. corn was converted into ethanol, it would supply only 5% of U.S. oil needs. Ethanol production is inefficient consuming 100% of the energy it generates vs only 5% for gasoline. Ethanol government subsidies amount to $1.50 per gallon. One company ADM controls 29% of U.S. ethanol and is the main beneficiary of such subsidies. The corn conversion to ethanol causes food price increases of $3.72 per gallon. Over full production cycle, ethanol emits 50% more CO2 than gasoline. It also emits toxic nitrous oxide. E85 (85% ethanol, 15% gasoline) causes vehicles mpg to drop by a third. Large scale ethanol production would deplete U.S. aquifers. It requires 880 gallons of water for irrigated corn or 170 gallons for non-irrigated corn to generate a gallon of ethanol vs less than 5 gallons of water for gasoline. Ford and GM build flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs) because the Fed counts only estimated gasoline consumed when figuring out fleet efficiency. Thus, a 15 mpg FFV turns into a 29 mpg rating. The only beneficiaries of ethanol are ADM, Ford, GM, and corn growers.

Bryce explains why alternative fuels will not dent fossil fuels dominance. Coal-to-liquids (CTL) technology has remained economically unfeasible despite massive subsidies. The CTL conversion emits 50% more CO2 than gasoline. Solar and wind power are uneconomical. They are both intermittent. And wind is intermittent at the worst time (peak electricity demand on hot days with no wind). To guarantee an adequate electricity load to avoid black outs, utilities have to keep burning coal, natural gas, etc... at all times. The EIA projects solar and wind will generate less than 1% of U.S. electricity by 2030.

Many of Bryce recommendations make sense.
a)U.S. Government should eliminate most subsidies. This would curb the ethanol scam among others.
b)The U.S. should reduce the number of gasoline fuel blends dictated by State regulations. Those increase gas costs, reduce gas supply, and have unproven environmental impact.
c)U.S. to redefine energy security as functional energy interdependence supported by a diversified portfolio of energy suppliers within an efficient global energy market.
d)Accept increasing energy use and adapt to changing climate. The prospective boost in China's coal consumption to support its economic growth guarantees CO2 emissions will keep growing. Also, most Kyoto Protocol member countries have failed their CO2 reduction targets by 20% or more.
e)Embrace nuclear power, natural gas, and pursue energy efficiency.
f)Increase domestic oil production. Open up the ANWR and the coasts to offshore exploration. There are tons of oil and gas in those areas.

Some of Bryce recommendations are contradictory. He recommends pursuing solar energy backed by government funds. Meanwhile, earlier he explained why solar will amount to less than 1% of electricity generation by 2030; and that the government should get out of the energy business.

Other recommendations are somewhat controversial. He recommends we engage the Middle East as trading partners. He believes rational trading partners do not fight wars. He recommends we leave Iraq and trade with Iran. Iran has no problem selling its oil to anyone else anyway. The U.S. should share the military burden of stabilizing the Middle East with China, Japan, and the E.U. Readers will interpret these through their own political filter. When Bryce crosses over into foreign policy, I would supplement it with The Post-American World and The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order.

Just months after this book publication several facts are outdated. He mentions oil is cheap at $2.82 per gallon in August 2007; but it rose to $4.00 recently. He also states that in the future crude oil could reach $100 to $150 per barrel. It already has in July 2008! He also stated we love big SUV gas guzzlers. But, SUVs are sitting on dealers lots at huge discounts.

When developing his long term energy prospect, Bryce omitted tar sands. Tar sands hold oil reserves are twice regular worldwide oil reserves. And, Canada holds half those reserves. Canada has already bypassed Saudi Arabia as the main crude oil exporter to the U.S. (17.6% of total for Canada vs 14.3% for Saudi Arabia).

Bryce dismissed oil shale as the government spent billions in the 1980s without generating any fuel. Since, oil prices have increased and technology prospects are encouraging. Western U.S. oil shale has estimated recoverable reserves nearly triple Saudi Arabia oil reserves.

Tar sand and oil shale have implications that contradict Bryce. First, the concept of Non-OPEC Peak Oil (declining production) is obsolete (chapter 7). Second, the U.S. will be less dependent on Middle East and more reliant on Canada and domestic resources.

for more information click here

Finally Time To Debunk The Energy Myths

In this book Bryce deftly details the fallacies of depending on alternative means of energy, at least for the immediate future. This is a topic that most liberals prefer to ignore. Those who justify huge subsidies for wind, solar, ethanol don't like to discuss the actual costs and challenges involved with those so-called alternatives. While an alternative to fossil fuels needs to be found in the future, you're not going to find it by just throwing money at it. If that was the case we'd have had a cure for cancer long ago. By the way, wasn't the fuel cell supposed to solve all of our problems? The truth is that in our world today we are all interdependent on each other for goods and services. Bryce is not a lackey for the oil industry; he is merely saying that it is the best fuel available for our transportation needs especially, and let it take its place in the free market along with unsubsidized alternatives. It's not a popular suggestion, but it sure beats the heck of all the meaningless political rhetoric we're hearing.

for more information click here

Food for thought

Certainly, this book is not perfect, as some other reviewers have alleged. What book is? To me, the arguments presented make sense. One reviewer mentioned that he didn't attack subsidies...he roundly attacks corn subsidies, and the politicians on both sides who kowtow to Big Corn. The tie-in with the election cycle is especially intriguing. Among the other arguments against the ridiculous way we currently have of electing people to our highest offices, the most ridiculous is allowing Iowans so much power.

Yes, he should address methanol; perhaps he will in a future edition. For now, though, we should all think about the consequences of pouring billions of dollars into alternate fuels that will, ultimately, condemn millions to starvation. We are already reaping the dubious benefits of rushing so much of our grain into ethanol in the way of higher food costs. What will happen to the rest of the world when we can no longer provide them with grain because all of our major grain crops are destined to go into our cars? How sustainable is ethanol when two years of drought occur (as it most certainly will)? Then, not only will we not have enough food, we won't have enough fuel, either. It's called robbing Peter to pay Paul, people, and it's never a good idea.

for more information click here

reviews: page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

Everybody is talking about "energy independence." But is it really achievable? Is it actually even desirable? In this controversial, meticulously researched book, Robert Bryce exposes the false promises behind the rhetoric while blasting nearly everybody? Republicans, Democrats, environmentalists, and war-mongering neoconservatives?for misleading voters about our energy needs.

Gusher of Lies explains why the idea of energy independence appeals to voters while also showing that renewable sources like wind and solar cannot meet America's growing energy demand. Along the way, Bryce eviscerates the ethanol scam. Whether the issue is cost, water consumption, or food prices, corn ethanol is one of the longest-running robberies ever perpetrated on American taxpayers.

Consumers concerned about peak oil and the future of global energy supplies need to understand that energy security depends on embracing free markets and the realities of interdependence. Gusher of Lies is illuminating, vital reading.

for more information click here