Drought: The silent elephant in the global warming greenhouse

books:


	• The Great Warming: Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations Brian Fagan Bloomsbury Press, 2008 - 304 pages average customer review:based on 13 reviews view larger image
	for more information click here

highly recommended

Disappointing

I'm afraid this book was a little disappointing. If the subtitle, "Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations," makes you think you're going to get some Jared-Diamond-like tour de force, you're in for a little letdown.

The book basically takes a previous climatic period of increasing warmth around the 11th to 14th centuries and shows how it affected different parts of the globe. If you've never heard any of this before, you may find the whole book rather interesting. If you've been exposed to it, however, there's simply not a lot there. Yes, drought may have gotten the Mongols on the move. Yes, Greenland wasn't once so cold. Yes, the Sahara wasn't once so dry. Beyond that, though ... The author tries to pad out each chapter with novel-like vignettes ("As soon often happens, your mind goes back deep into the past, in this case to the generations of foragers who once visited this place and looked out over the same arid vista"), tenuous connections(drought and Mande social memory), and straight conjecture (iron moving across the Canadian North, from the Bering Straight to Greenland). A lot of the material is also covered much more interstingly in Jared Diamond's Collapse.

It is well-written, however, and there is plenty of food for thought. I just wish there had been more focus, more tying together, and maybe some bigger ideas. The book was good enough, though, that I will probably try the Little Ice Age.

for more information click here

Drought: The silent elephant in the global warming greenhouse

Brian Fagan does an excellent job, with the knowledge we have today, of illustrating what lights paleoclimatology may be able to shine on today's global warming, with sufficient warnings for the humans that are causing it.

Specifically, the flight to the Sunbelt, especially the Desert Southwest, with its low-density sprawl and little mass transit, on the one hand, and demand for air conditioning, on the other, continuing to fuel anthropogenic global warming, Fagan would be excused if he didn't serve up a whole plateful of Schadenfreude crow for the largely conservative denizens of this part of the U.S. to digest.

He didn't, but he could. Why?

Based on paleoclimatology, it appears likely that this part of the country will experience the same long-term drought that wracked the Anasazi at Chaco Canyon, then later at Mesa Verde. Of course, the nearly 20 million of Southern California's Southland, the almost 5 million of the blot called Phoenix and the moving toward 1.5 million inexplicably in the Las Vegas area are a lot more thirsty for water than the Anasazi were.

But, move beyond the U.S. The droughts of sub-Saharan Africa that started in the early 1980s are also likely to get worse in the 21st century. So, too, are problems in China, especially north China.

Beyond this, Fagan documents the variety of ways in which civilizations of this time, from 900-1300 AD or so, called the Medieval Warm Period by British paleoclimatology pioneer Hubert Lamb, tried to deal with climate change of their era, or fell apart when they were able to deal no longer.

With excellent explanatory sidebars on climatic patterns, chapter-by-chapter maps of civilizations under discussion and more, Fagan details the power of climatic change, with a sobering bit of reality for our times.

for more information click here

Impact of Nature and Human Beings on Climate Change

Brian Fagan explores the story of climate change between 800 and 1300 C.E. and the impact of that climate change on different regions of the world. Unlike Europe, most other regions of the world suffered from drought, not bountiful harvests during that period. Understandably, Fagan is inclined to rename the so called Medieval Warm Period into the Medieval Drought Period.

Fagan usually does a good job of explaining how proxies such as tree rings, ice borings, and deep-sea and lake cores can be used to deduce the climatic evolution during a given period in a certain area. Direct methods (instrument records and historical documents), climatic forcings (such as volcanic eruptions), and computer modeling are other techniques used to study ancient climatic change. Today's world can particularly benefit from the lessons that Fagan draws from the implosion of both lowland Maya civilization and Angkorian empire.

Unfortunately, Fagan's narration is at times confusing due to the use of side stories that slows down reading without adding too much value to his narration. Worse, Fagan makes bold, controversial statements at the beginning and end of his book that are apparently built on his exploration of climate change between 800 and 1300 C.E. and its impact on different regions of the world.

For example, Fagan states that global warming since the end of the Little Ice Age (from roughly 1300 to 1860 C.E.) is caused in large part by human activity (pp. xvi-xvii, 230). That statement flies in the face of what Fagan explores in the rest of his book. Many non-human made factors play a significant role in influencing climate change. Furthermore, Fagan quotes Al Gore and his documentary "An Inconvenient Truth" on global warming as an impartial authority on the subject without mentioning at the same time the nine significant errors found in that documentary. Fagan could benefit from reading the ruling rendered by High Court Judge Michael Burton in 2007 in London on that subject if he has not yet done it. Similarly, Fagan could find another perspective on global warming by watching the hard-hitting documentary "The Great Global Warming Swindle," which is on sale on Amazon.com.

To summarize, what the international community needs, is impartial facts instead of propaganda, and workable, economically feasible solutions instead of undue pessimism about the future of humanity.

for more information click here

It's all about rain . . . or lack of it

Climate change is a regular item in the news. Most articles and books look at the future - few address the past. While the human condition is a large consideration, real effects are not often dwelt on. Brian Fagan makes up for both these lacks in this finely researched and comprehensive study. In a framework centred on a millennium in the past, he takes us on a global tour of what is known as The Medieval Warm Period. Lasting for half a millennium, about 850 C.E. to 1300 C.E, Fagan shows us the importance of understanding the global nature of climate and its interconnected elements.

In Europe, the era was later named the High Middle Ages. Flourishing trade, wine grown in the British Isles and shipped to France [!] and the mighty cathedrals erected typified the period. Elsewhere, conditions weren't as salubrious. In the North American Southwest, drought brought to a close the civilisation of Chaco Canyon and toppled the great Mayan Empire. In Asia, the great Ankor Wat, built to symbolise a vast and rich realm, was abandoned to the jungle. China's peasant population, always at the edge of survival, was driven from their lands in many places by alternating extended droughts and torrential rainfalls stripping the soil. Even the Mongol Horde was prompted to move in what proved nearly catastrophic for Europe, driven by the need for grazing lands.

Enduring climate change has been a human consideration from the beginning. Even our evolutionary roots lie in the drying of Africa and the subsequent emergence of the savannah. In one sense, climate is what brought us the role of the one bipedal ape. The development of agriculture made us yet more vulnerable to shifts in climate, Fagan reminds us. Dependence on rainfall is the foundation of raising crops, alleviated only a little by irrigation canals. Irrigated farming plays a major role in this book, with the South American and other civilisations struggling with problems of water management. Those lacking such amenities, such as California Indians, suffered drastically when the severest droughts in thousands of years killed off natural food supplies.

Fagan's talent as a writer is equalled by his feeling for the human condition. In each region he describes, it's more than weather changes that he's concerned with. It's what that meant to the local population and how it reacted. The author uses a deft ploy to capture the reader's interest at the beginning of each section. He sets up a local scene with imaginary, but carefully defined, participants. The situation reflects the weather and social conditions, indicating how those interact to produce behaviours and adjustments.

At first glance, this book may seem merely a "history" with little meaning for today's conditions or those of the future. However, it is far from that - being instead a diagnosis for what is to come. Fagan concludes by reminding us of past population dislocations resulting from the great droughts. That pressure is certain to emerge again, and he asks how ready we are to deal with it. Although climate change is "normal", as the events of the Medieval Warm Period demonstrate, the population today is vastly larger than it was then. With the human contribution to warming accelerating the process, it will be billions of people affected by what is to come. In the earlier time, some people, such as the Chaco Canyon residents, had the ability to adjust, our capacity to follow their example is curtailed by our high density centres. This book is an overdue warning of what we, or our grandchildren, will be facing. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]

for more information click here

reviews: page 1, 2, 3

How the earth?s previous global warming phase, from the tenth to the fifteenth centuries, reshaped human societies from the Arctic to the Sahara?a wide-ranging history with sobering lessons for our own time.

From the tenth to the fifteenth centuries the earth experienced a rise in surface temperature that changed climate worldwide?a preview of today?s global warming. In some areas, including Western Europe, longer summers brought bountiful harvests and population growth that led to cultural flowering. In the Arctic, Inuit and Norse sailors made cultural connections across thousands of miles as they traded precious iron goods. Polynesian sailors, riding new wind patterns, were able to settle the remotest islands on earth. But in many parts of the world, the warm centuries brought drought and famine. Elaborate societies in western and central America collapsed, and the vast building complexes of Chaco Canyon and the Mayan Yucatan were left empty.

As he did in his bestselling The Little Ice Age, anthropologist and historian Brian Fagan reveals how subtle changes in the environment had far-reaching effects on human life, in a narrative that sweeps from the Arctic ice cap to the Sahara to the Indian Ocean. The history of the Great Warming of a half millennium ago suggests that we may yet be underestimating the power of climate change to disrupt our lives today?and our vulnerability to drought, writes Fagan, is the ?silent elephant in the room.?

for more information click here

hot