Good book but with too widespread and not concise line

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	• The Age of Fallibility: Consequences of the War on Terror George Soros PublicAffairs, 2006 - 259 pages average customer review:based on 21 reviews view larger image
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highly recommended

Thought Provoking for the Open-Minded

First of all, it must be said right off that this is not a book about trading. Soros is most famous in the financial markets for his managing of the Quantum Fund and making a billion shorting the Pound in the 90s when the currency broke from the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) which was in place then as a precursor to the eventual Euro introduction. Anyone coming in with the author's trading/investing history in mind thinking he might talk about that type of thing in this book is going to be disappointed. While he does mention events like this and others for which he is famous - or notorious, depending on your viewpoint - neither trading nor the markets are the focus of this book.

The Age of Fallibility is at its core as much a philosophical treatise as an exploration of global affairs. Soros has a pretty well developed world view and philosophy. His `reflexivity' approach to events (markets and otherwise) has been expressed in his earlier books, and is further refined in this one. That is the part of the book which will appeal to traders and investors, as it helps to explain how he looks at the larger movement of markets and how predictable patterns of behavior can be seen. For those who like to take a big picture view of things, it is definitely something worth reading.

As for the remainder of the book, that is a combination of explaining open society, exploring global politics, and attacking America's foreign policy, as the title would imply (though no major global player is left out of the discussion or immune from criticism). If you are an open-minded sort then you will find Soros' views very interesting. In particular, I found his discussion on the concept of the "war on terror" very interesting.

No matter what you think of Soros or his politics (and many folks rightly or wrongly have a negative view of him), the fact of the matter is the man has a perspective on things few can offer based on his experience operating his various organizations. As such, he is definitely someone to whom we should at least listen. If you can do that, I guarantee he'll have you thinking at several points in the text. If not, then this may not be a book you'll want to read.

I personally started the book wondering if the arrogance I found in his earlier market focused books would be apparent in this one too, but I found it wasn't. The style was very engaging throughout and what he had to say thought provoking. If that's what you look for in a current events type of book, then you will like this one, all the more for the fact that though the book was written in 2006, it has enough of a macro scope to it to make the subject matter still quite meaningful now in 2008.

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Good book but with too widespread and not concise line

The books is based on three pilars:
1) Representing the falsification theory of Popper, which becomes to some extend boring, since every George Soros book repeats this philosophical fundament. The extension of this theory by incorporating the human nature is indeed a very good idea.
2) Very brief references to experiences gathered within his free society foundation acting in new established democracies. It could be 5 stars rated book, if major part of this book was dedicated to this hot topic
3) Once again his role as finance guru in the past and philanthrop in the presense, revolving to everybody who knows George Soros vita well known facts.
Good book but with to widespread and not concise line

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A good start and a stale finish

The book has basically three parts: a) Introduction, b) Conceptual Framework, and c) The Present Moment in History.

The Introduction and Conceptual Framework are fantastic. Although Geoge Soros states right of the bet that he has not exhausted his passions and is not ready for an auto biography nor death, he makes a little concession and offers the reader briefs vignettes of his life, enough for the interested reader, who only knew about him via the commentary in newspapers and cable TV, to develop a better understanding about this complex and fascinating individual.

I enjoyed reading the Conceptual Framework. I'm convinced that everyone should attempt to have one and, like George Soros, be willing to evolve it based on their own life experience. His is a complex one and worth of reading a few times. I was inspired by the depth and breadth of his ideas. The point that was left with me is his treatment of the question of the search for truth and how to apply it to our considerably complex lives.

"The truth can be manipulated, but the extent to which the outcome will approximate our will depends on the extent which our understanding approximates reality. We pursue success without too much concern for the truth. As a result we have become a feel good society, unwilling to confront unpleasant realities. We want out electoral leaders to make us feel good instead of telling us the truth."

Ouch, where to I go from here?

Well, the reading of The Present Moment in History is not as interesting. Although George Soros makes excellent points about contemporary socio, economical and political subjects, I was left with the impression that his only goal is to explain his disdain for the present USA Administration, particularly for Geoge W. Bush. Geoge Soros moves from a high minded philosophical discussion into a down in the mud, although well articulated, discussion about how the world is in trouble and George W. Bush, together with his cohorts, are responsible for all that is wrong with American society today.

Interestingly, George Soros made his fortune finding and exploring fault in systems, particularly during huge financial crisis such as what we saw in the mid 70s, late 80's, and late 90s. Now he is willing to spend most of it, including his precious time left on this earth, trying to fix what he believes is one of the most complex man-made systems ever, American Democracy.

Although the reading of The Present Moment in History is dense and well worded, I was left with the impression that it was a waste of my time to read it and of George Soros to write it. I would rather see him become a lot more active in our society, by jumping into the battle with both feet and running for office. It would be fascinating to see George Soros engaging for a fight to be a county supervisor; in fact I would love to see George Soros do it, and then review The Present Moment in History. I promise to read it if he does it.

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Compelling advocacy of [the] open society

Most of the meat of this decidedly philosophic opus by one of the world's most successful financial wizards concerns the differences between the closed and open societies that govern us. The closed society is characterized by traditional modes of thought while the open society is characterized by critical thought. Traditional thinking is unchanging. The past is like the present which is like the future. We think the way our fathers thought and their fathers before them. Knowledge is based on authority. In the open society change is constant. Knowledge is based on the scientific method which yields facts that are always subject to change. In the closed society knowledge is certain and absolute. In the open society knowledge is never certain and always subject to new discoveries.

Yet ironically in the open society (the European Union, the United States, et al.) pure reason does not rule, partly because the pure product of the rational mind is unobtainable because of what might be seen as Russell's paradox acting in the human world. Bertrand Russell discovered (after Godel) that self-referencing systems lead eventually to paradox. What Soros is arguing is that because our perception of the world is self-referential to some extent--that is, how we think about the world colors our perception of the world--we can never see the world "as it really is," and so our view is fallible. In fact, in most aspects of life, especially in the social, economic and political spheres, our perception actually changes reality, and so reality is a "moving target" and as such can never be captured. He calls this "reflexivity." He also dubs it the "human uncertainty principle" since our perception of the world, as our perception of quantum events, alters what is being perceived.

Soros goes on to argue that all cultures are built upon what he calls "fertile fallacies." The cultural ideas are false but they are successful (for a while) because of a positive feedback system, similar to the boom and bust phenomenon in financial markets. People believe that tulips have great intrinsic value, ergo, tulips have great intrinsic value and become worth more than gold. For a while. Eventually "reality" kicks in and the bust comes. So it is with cultures. Nazi Germany boomed magnificently (compared to the immediate aftermath of WWI), but soon went bust because it was built on fallacies. Ditto the Soviet Union.

All this Soros explains carefully and at some length. Then comes the important point: open societies can better avoid the boom and bust syndrome because unlike closed societies they are not built on some fallacious idea of eternal truth. Instead, like science they are always open to falsification and change, whereas close societies resist falsification and change.

In all of this I think Soros is making a brilliant argument. As he himself says, the argument is not original with him--he acknowledges a deep debt to Karl Popper the philosopher of science who wrote The Open Society and Its Enemies and was a mentor to Soros. But what I think Soros is doing here that is original is presenting the argument in a compelling political and social context.

There is so much of a non-philosophic nature that I would like to quote from this book. Soros's observations on politics and the current world order are insightful and penetrating. He is one of the deep thinkers of our time and a man who expresses himself fearlessly. Because of his great material success in the world and the activist stance he has taken internationally, he is a man that many people listen to, even those who find his views disagreeable. Here are a few of his thoughts:

"The idea of death is not the same as the fact of death. The idea of death is the denial of consciousness, and the fact of death is not the denial of life but its natural conclusion." (p. 42)

"I set up an Open Society Fund and defined its objectives as follows: to open up closed societies; to make open societies more viable; and to promote a critical mode of thinking." (p. 53)

In Chapter 3 Soros asks the question, "What's Wrong with America?" and comes to the conclusion that it is a failure of leadership which is the result of "a failure of followership," which is a general way of saying that the Bush administration has greatly failed the American people, but also that the electorate has failed because it has elected people like Bush. But in the next chapter, "The Feel-Good Society," he really nails it. Quite simply the American people have become gluttons of consumption who can barely get off their couches, who do about as much critical thinking as cows chewing their cuds. (His expression is less graphic.) He sees the Bush administration's "war on terror" response to 9/11 as "phantasmagoric" (p. 102) in that Bush has us fighting against an abstraction instead of going after the people responsible for 9/11. Soros writes, "Since the war on terror is counterproductive, it is liable to generate more terrorists or insurgents than it can liquidate. As a result, we are facing a permanent state of war and the end of the United States as an open society." (p. 106) (cf., Orwell)

On Afghanistan: "...we formed alliances with warlords, and it is their authority that we helped to establish; in this way, we consolidated an economic and political system based on the illegal cultivation of narcotics." (p. 149) On Iraq, "Iran is the major beneficiary of the invasion, which removed its enemy Saddam Hussein from power, tied up American forces in a task that they are ill-prepared to perform, and tightened the supply of oil" [making Iranian oil more valuable]. (p. 112)

Soros also addresses the problems of energy supply and global warming, which of course are interrelated. He touches on the nuclear threat which he sees as now more menacing than during the Cold War.

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reviews: page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

After reflecting on his support of a losing Democrat for president, George Soros steps back to revisit his views on why George Bush's policies around the world fall short in the arenas most important to Soros: democracy, human rights and open society. As a survivor of the Holocaust and a life-long proponent of free expression, Soros understands the meaning of freedom. And yet his differences with George Bush, another proponent of freedom, are profound.

In this powerful essay Soros spells out his views and how they differ from the president's. He reflects on why the Democrats may have lost the high ground on these values issues and how they might reclaim it. As he has in his recent books, On Globalization and The Bubble of American Supremacy, Soros uses facts, anecdotes, personal experience and philosophy to illuminate a major topic in a way that both enlightens and inspires.

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